Bárðarbunga
Seismicity by period · derived statistics from Skjálftalísa (Icelandic Met Office)
Status (automatic)
In the last 24 hours, 8 earthquakes were recorded in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system beneath Vatnajökull, and activity is increasing although it remains within normal levels for this area. The increase is primarily due to distributed background activity rather than swarms, and GNSS uplift at KISA is currently about 64 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm/year. These automatic preliminary results most closely resemble the period around August 8, 2024, and further details on trends and uplift are available below. (status from 2026-07-24 04:10 UTC)VONA = Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation; the official Met Office colour code for aviation. Independent of Skjálfti's automatic analysis.
Depth — 3D and cross-section Bárðarbunga + Holuhraun dyke · last 90 days
Each dot is an earthquake, depth as the third dimension — Bárðarbunga + Holuhraun dyke, last 90 days. Drag the 3D view to rotate; point at a dot for details.
3D (rotatable) · depth ×2.5
Cross-section — distance along profile (km) vs depth (km)
Map (top view)
<24 klst2–7 dolderunconstrained depthsize ∝ magnitude (M)
⚠ Preliminary depths, unreliable (automatic Met Office solutions; depth often poorly constrained). events with unconstrained (default) depth shown as open rings — not real structure. For illustration, not analysis.
🕰️ Last eruption / event — 11 years ago
Holuhraun eruption ended (2015-02-27). Iceland's largest lava eruption since Skaftáreldar in 1783 (1.4 km³ in 6 months). Caldera subsided 65 m. Reloading only reaches 0.001% of Holuhraun moment.
Central volcano with a large fissure swarm beneath Vatnajökull — one of Iceland's most active systems. The 2014–2015 Holuhraun eruption was the largest lava eruption in Iceland since the Laki fires of 1783. (overview — more at vedur.is) · circle on the map = rough outline of the system (radius).
Subglacial system: a subglacial eruption can cause a jökulhlaup (sudden glacial meltwater flood) with little warning, and volcanic gases (incl. SO₂, CO₂) can be dangerous near vents and may pool in hollows. These are standing features of the system, not a sign of an imminent eruption.
📜 Did you know?
Vatnaöldur ~877 AD from the Bárðarbunga system produced the Landnám tephra layer — the marker layer archaeologists use to date all Settlement-era sites in Iceland (Grönvold et al. 1995, GRIP ice core). Holuhraun (2014-15) was then Iceland's largest lava eruption since Skaftáreldar in 1783 — 1.4 km³ in 6 months, caldera subsided 65 m.
Historical eruptions in the system — points colored by size, blue circle shows where we are now in time.
❓ What if Bárðarbunga erupts again?
Two likely scenarios:
1. Holuhraun-style fissure (like 2014-15): magma extends NE from caldera and erupts at the Vatnajökull margin. Lava onto the highlands, no settlements at risk. SO₂ can reach all populated areas — health warnings needed. 2. Subglacial eruption: jökulhlaup down Jökulsá á Fjöllum to the north, or Köldukvísl/Skjálfandafljót. Peak flow 10,000-50,000 m³/s for modern eruptions (prehistoric catastrophic floods were much larger). No direct settlement risk but highways close. Current reloading: 0.001% of Holuhraun moment — not close to next eruption. Sources: Holuhraun 2014-15 (Gudmundsson et al. 2016), GVP.
1. Holuhraun-style fissure (like 2014-15): magma extends NE from caldera and erupts at the Vatnajökull margin. Lava onto the highlands, no settlements at risk. SO₂ can reach all populated areas — health warnings needed. 2. Subglacial eruption: jökulhlaup down Jökulsá á Fjöllum to the north, or Köldukvísl/Skjálfandafljót. Peak flow 10,000-50,000 m³/s for modern eruptions (prehistoric catastrophic floods were much larger). No direct settlement risk but highways close. Current reloading: 0.001% of Holuhraun moment — not close to next eruption. Sources: Holuhraun 2014-15 (Gudmundsson et al. 2016), GVP.
This is not a forecast. Based on historical experience and official hazard assessments from the Met Office / Civil Protection.
Jökulhlaup history (historical renewal model + Bayesian update)
Last known flood (Eystri ketill): 2024-08-01, 724 d ago. Median interval between floods: ~1.0 yr (375 d, n=12) · 349 d over median interval · historically ~1 in 11 within 6 mo from a state like this (n=12).
Note: The Met Office does not publish open realtime water-level/conductivity data. Realtime flood monitoring requires VPN/agreement with Veðurstofa (vmkerfi.vedur.is).
KISA step detection — 6 drops ≥ 15 mm in past 2 yr (May-Oct; winter snow filtered). Each drop = ice-shell subsidence, possible jökulhlaup signal. Latest: 2025-10-31 (-35 mm).
Bárðarbunga reloading since Holuhraun (2015-03). Cumulative seismic moment (M₀ = 101.5M+9.1 N·m) = 47.1×10¹⁵ N·m (0.0236% of Holuhraun ~2×10²⁰). Deep (≥15 km) earthquakes: 2.8×10¹² N·m (0.000%) — possible mantle-magma replenishment. Seismic reloading never approaches eruption moment; small percentages are normal — next eruption requires fresh magma loading, not just seismic accumulation. This 0.001% is like adding a teaspoon back into an empty bucket — recharge is just beginning.
Points = earthquake locations in the selected window, coloured by magnitude: M3+ · M2+ · smaller (a sample if more than 800).
Earthquakes
2
Largest
M0.1
M3,0+
0
Depth range
4–11 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 2 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M0.3 · count moment
Depth (0 km at top).
Not enough depth data.
Magnitude distribution
Earthquakes
9
Largest
M1.6
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–11 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 9 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M1.8 · count moment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
29
Largest
M1.6
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–29 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 29 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M2.0 · count moment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
153
Largest
M2.1
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–29 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 153 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M2.6 · count moment
Depth (0 km at top) — shallowing in the data (5.2→3.7 km). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
2805
Largest
M4.8
M3,0+
19
Depth range
0–30 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 2805 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M5.0 · count moment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Gutenberg-Richter b ≈ 0.77 ± 0.05 (i.e. likely 0.72–0.81, M≥1.7, n=243) · low b can accompany magma activity (small sample, interpret with caution)
Note: before February 2026 about half of events lacked an automatic magnitude, so magnitude-dependent figures (b-value, count of M≥X) under-count earlier periods — the catalogue is not homogeneous across this window. Cumulative moment is barely affected.
Earthquakes
4854
Largest
M4.8
M3,0+
29
Depth range
0–30 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 4854 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M5.0 · count moment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Gutenberg-Richter b ≈ 0.76 ± 0.04 (i.e. likely 0.72–0.80, M≥1.7, n=325) · low b can accompany magma activity (small sample, interpret with caution)
Note: before February 2026 about half of events lacked an automatic magnitude, so magnitude-dependent figures (b-value, count of M≥X) under-count earlier periods — the catalogue is not homogeneous across this window. Cumulative moment is barely affected.
Depth is automatic and uncertain; earthquakes alone do not show magma movement — deformation (GPS) and gas are needed. Grey points: automatic fixed-depth values. b-value computed for M≥1.5 (automatic magnitudes make lower completeness unreliable). Preliminary data.
Uplift — GNSS deformation
KISA — land rising ~64 mm/yr (seasonally adjusted) · long-term +38 mm/yr (MIDAS)
REYK (Reykjavík) — reference ~-2 mm/yr
Up = land rising (possible magma accumulation), down = subsidence. From Nevada Geodetic Lab (third-party processing, ~3-week lag, latest 2026-05-02). Interpreted deformation: Icelandic Met Office.
🌊 Volcanic tremor — The volcanic tremor baseline is currently normal and should only be compared to recent da…
IMO tremor plot (station skr). Most of the signal is weather and surf — not eruption confirmation. All stations: vedur.is ↗.
Weather now: wind 6 m/s (Hágöngum) — moderate.
The volcanic tremor baseline is currently normal and should only be compared to recent days since wind and wave correlations are unreliable for this station. (AI)
Band analysis past 9 days (from digitized RSAM values). High 2-4 Hz + low 0.5-1 Hz = possible magma-movement signal; high 0.5-1 Hz without 2-4 Hz = weather/surf.
Earthquakes in the system
| Time (UTC) | Mag | Depth (km) | Area |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 14:19 | M0.1 | 10.9 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-26 06:24 | M0.0 | 3.8 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-25 16:52 | M1.2 | 9.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-25 16:52 | M1.2 | 9.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-25 14:29 | M1.6 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-25 14:29 | M0.9 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-25 07:57 | M0.6 | 2.5 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-25 00:17 | M1.2 | 6.6 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-24 23:50 | M1.3 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-24 16:42 | M1.2 | 8.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-24 16:27 | M0.9 | 13.9 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-24 16:27 | M0.6 | 3.4 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-24 12:27 | M1.2 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-24 02:38 | M0.9 | 1.1 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 23:36 | M0.5 | 3.9 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 22:58 | M0.5 | 5.7 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 22:56 | M0.3 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 22:28 | M0.7 | 9.8 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 20:35 | M0.8 | 10.6 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 20:06 | M0.6 | 2.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 09:09 | M0.7 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 07:01 | M0.7 | 3.4 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-23 04:51 | M0.8 | 1.7 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-22 02:49 | M0.5 | 28.9 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-21 23:56 | M0.4 | 3.8 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-21 11:10 | M0.0 | 1.1 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-20 12:06 | M1.2 | 4.4 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-20 12:06 | M1.2 | 5.3 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-20 00:18 | M0.7 | 4.5 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-18 22:54 | M1.9 | 1.1 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-18 12:30 | M-0.3 | 1.8 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-18 04:48 | M0.6 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 19:09 | M0.7 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 17:28 | M0.5 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 17:03 | M0.3 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 12:14 | M0.2 | 9.3 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 12:14 | M-0.5 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 08:34 | M0.3 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 05:45 | M1.2 | 3.3 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 05:41 | M0.0 | 4.9 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 05:08 | M0.8 | 2.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-17 04:04 | M0.3 | 1.1 | Other areas |
| 2026-07-16 16:37 | M0.9 | 25.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-16 16:16 | M0.6 | 16.4 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-16 15:04 | M0.8 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-16 06:32 | M0.3 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-16 05:27 | M-0.1 | 3.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-13 12:50 | M0.8 | 5.3 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-12 20:09 | M0.5 | 1.9 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-12 04:10 | M0.1 | 6.4 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-11 12:44 | M0.2 | 10.5 | Other areas |
| 2026-07-10 14:45 | M1.2 | 2.7 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 14:23 | M0.4 | 6.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 12:08 | M-0.7 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 10:00 | M0.7 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 08:51 | M0.4 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 08:35 | M-0.4 | 0.0 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 06:45 | M0.5 | 5.3 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 05:39 | M0.7 | 5.2 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
| 2026-07-10 01:29 | M1.7 | 1.3 | Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn) |
For the advanced — expert charts — Coulomb, migration, InSAR
🔬 Coulomb stress transfer — advanced analysis
29 earthquakes M≥3.0 in this window on this system. Such events transfer stress to neighbouring faults — some become more likely to slip, others less ("Coulomb stress transfer"). The Met Office does not publish focal mechanisms for automatically located events, so Skjálfti does not compute this itself — it requires strike/dip/rake data which is only available for M≥4.5 events in the GCMT catalogue.
For Coulomb analysis, see: USGS Coulomb 3.4 (stand-alone software) and focal mechanisms for Iceland in Global CMT.
For Coulomb analysis, see: USGS Coulomb 3.4 (stand-alone software) and focal mechanisms for Iceland in Global CMT.
System journal
Automatic snapshots and media coverage, in chronological order. Subscribe: RSS · ntfy
skjalftar-bardarbunga2026-07-24 04:10:04 UTC
In the last 24 hours, 8 earthquakes were recorded in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system beneath Vatnajökull, and activity is increasing although it remains within normal levels for this area. The increase is primarily due to distributed background activity rather than swarms, and GNSS uplift at KISA is currently about 64 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm/year. These automatic preliminary results most closely resemble the period around August 8, 2024, and further details on trends and uplift are available below.2026-07-22 02:55:03 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 3 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area and remains similar to the past week, characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with 87% of events over the last 7 days being independent. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) and the cumulative magnitude in the area was Mw 1.4, while land uplift is currently measured at approximately 65 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. The activity most closely resembles the period around March 11, 2026 as a historical analogue, though it must be noted that all results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths. Maps and further measurements on uplift trends can be found below on the page.2026-07-22 00:00:06 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 2 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is normal for this area and remains similar to the past week, characterized by scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms, with 87% of events over the last seven days being independent. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) with a total moment magnitude of 1.4 (Mw) during the period, while land uplift is currently measured at approximately 65 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. The activity most closely resembles the period around September 26, 2024, though it must be noted that these are automatic preliminary results where depth is unreliable. Maps and further data on this development can be found lower on the page.2026-07-21 12:10:03 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, only 1 earthquake was detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area and indicates that activity is decreasing compared to the weekly rate, consisting of scattered background activity rather than swarms as 87% of events over the last 7 days were independent. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) with a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 1.4, while land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year. The activity most closely resembles the period around September 26, 2024, when 22 earthquakes were detected, though it must be noted that these are automatic preliminary results with unreliable depth estimates. Maps and further data can be viewed below.Repeated × 2 since 2026-07-20 15:00:07 — last 2026-07-20 22:55:04
Over the last 24 hours, 3 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area and remains similar to the past week, characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake measuring magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) and the cumulative moment magnitude over the last 48 hours at 1.4 (Mw). GNSS measurements indicate the ground is uplifting at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year, with the current activity most closely resembling the period around June 24, 2025. Please note that these results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable and the GNSS data is several weeks old.2026-07-20 12:10:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 2 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. The seismic activity is within what is normal for this area and remains similar to the past week, characterized by scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.9 (Mw), with the cumulative moment magnitude for the period also at 1.9 Mw, although these results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable. According to GNSS data from a few weeks ago, the land is uplifting by approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year, and the current activity most closely resembles the period around June 24, 2025.2026-07-19 22:55:02 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, no earthquakes have been detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull and one of Iceland's most active volcanic systems. The seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area and is currently decreasing, with measurements from the last seven days showing scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms. Land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year. These automatic preliminary results show activity that most closely resembles the period around June 25, 2025.2026-07-19 19:45:03 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, only 1 earthquake was detected in Bárðarbunga, which is a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area and indicates that the activity is decreasing, as the last 24 hours are below the weekly average, characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude M1.9, with a cumulative seismic moment of Mw 1.9 during that period, while land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average. The current activity most closely resembles the period around June 25, 2025, as a historical analogue, but it should be noted that these results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable. Maps and further details on ground deformation can be found below on the page.2026-07-18 17:20:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 4 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. The seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area and remains similar to the past week, characterized by scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2 (M1.2), and the cumulative seismic moment magnitude for that period was 1.4 (Mw). Land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm/year based on GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm/year. The activity most closely resembles the period around March 5, 2025, though it should be noted that these are automatic preliminary results where depth is unreliable. Maps and further measurements can be found below on the page.2026-07-18 11:45:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 5 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area, but it is increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate, characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude M1.2, with a cumulative magnitude of Mw 1.5 during that period, while land uplift in the area is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. The activity most closely resembles the period around May 24, 2025, and it is noted that all results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable. Maps and further measurement data can be found lower on this page.2026-07-18 08:35:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 6 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area, though it is increasing compared to the past week when the daily average was 3 earthquakes. The activity consists of scattered background activity rather than swarms, with 82% of events over the last 7 days being independent, and most closely resembles the period around May 24, 2025. The cumulative magnitude over the last 48 hours was Mw 1.5 and the largest earthquake measured M1.2, although these are automatic preliminary results with unreliable depth. Land uplift is measuring around 64 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year. Maps and further measurements can be found lower on the page.2026-07-18 04:05:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 10 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull, with activity increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate. This seismic activity is within what is normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) and the cumulative magnitude of the period being 1.5 (Mw). Geodetic measurements show land uplift of approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, though these results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depth and are based on GNSS data that is a few weeks old. The current activity most closely resembles the period around May 24, 2025 as a historical analogue, and further information and maps can be found lower on this page.2026-07-18 01:50:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 11 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area, although it is currently increasing compared to recent days, with the last 24 hours being well above the weekly average of 3 earthquakes per day. The activity consists of scattered background seismicity rather than swarms, as 81% of events over the last seven days were independent, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) and the cumulative magnitude of all events being 1.5 (Mw). Ground deformation data from a few weeks ago shows land rising at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year, and the current activity most closely resembles2026-07-17 17:30:06 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 9 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is normal for this area, but it is currently increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate, manifesting as scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude M1.2, with a cumulative magnitude of Mw 1.4, while land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. These results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable, and the current activity most closely resembles the period around June 3, 2025. Maps and further deformation data can be found below on the page.Repeated × 2 since 2026-07-17 12:15:04 — last 2026-07-17 15:05:10
Over the last 24 hours, 8 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This seismic activity is within what is considered normal for this area, but it is currently increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate of 2 earthquakes per day on average. This represents scattered background activity rather than swarms, with 80% of events over the last 7 days being independent, while the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2 (M1.2) and the cumulative magnitude during the period was 1.4 (Mw). Land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year, and the activity most closely resembles the period around October 16, 2024. Please note that these results are2026-07-17 08:40:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 7 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure swarm under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This earthquake activity is within what is normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, although the activity is increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2 (M1.2), and the cumulative magnitude for that period was 1.4 (Mw). GNSS measurements show land rising at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 38 mm per year, and the activity most closely resembles the period around July 25, 2024. Please note that these are automatic preliminary results where depth is unreliable, but further data and maps can be found lower on the page.2026-07-17 06:35:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 6 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This activity is increasing, as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate, but it remains within what is normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 1.2, with a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 1.4 during that period, while land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. These results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths, and the current activity most closely resembles the period around July 25, 2024.2026-07-17 04:10:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 5 earthquakes were detected in Bárðarbunga, a central volcano with a large fissure system under Vatnajökull — one of the country's most active systems. This activity is increasing, as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly rate, but it remains within what is normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms. The cumulative magnitude over the last 48 hours was Mw 1.0 and the largest earthquake was M0.8, with all results being automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depth. Land uplift is currently measured at approximately 64 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average, and the current activity most closely resembles the period around November 30, 2025.What do the numbers mean — and what should I do?
β (swarm signal): how high activity is versus the area's 2-year average. β above 2 means an ongoing swarm. It measures activity, not a forecast of a large quake.
Cumulative moment (Mw): the combined energy of the quakes in the period. Uplift (GNSS): whether the ground is rising or sinking, mm per year — the data are a few weeks old. Some systems (e.g. Svartsengi) deform in steps during eruption cycles rather than at a steady annual rate.
Swarm character is computed for a whole volcanic belt, not a single system — it describes the belt, not necessarily this one system.
What should I do? This is automatic monitoring for information — not an official warning. Follow official information from the Icelandic Met Office and Civil Protection (112).