Seismicity by period · derived statistics from Skjálftalísa (Icelandic Met Office)
Status (automatic)
In the last 24 hours, no seismic activity was measured in the Grímsvötn system, Iceland's most active volcano, and activity is decreasing compared to the weekly average but remains within normal levels for this area. The increase over the past week has been characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms, and land uplift at the station is currently faster than the decadal average although GNSS data are several weeks old. Activity most closely resembles the period around January 26, 2025, and results are automatic preliminary results; further charts on trends and land uplift can be found below on the page. (status from 2026-07-24 04:10 UTC)
VONA (Grímsvötn): Green (was: Yellow, 2025-01-20) · source
VONA = Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation; the official Met Office colour code for aviation. Independent of Skjálfti's automatic analysis.
Depth — 3D and cross-section Grímsvötn · last 90 days
Each dot is an earthquake, depth as the third dimension — Grímsvötn, last 90 days. Drag the 3D view to rotate; point at a dot for details.
3D (rotatable) · depth ×2.5
Cross-section — distance along profile (km) vs depth (km)
⚠ Preliminary depths, unreliable (automatic Met Office solutions; depth often poorly constrained). events with unconstrained (default) depth shown as open rings — not real structure. For illustration, not analysis.
🕰️ Last eruption / event — 15 years ago
Largest eruption in 100 years(2011-05-21). Sent an ash cloud that halted Nordic flights for days. Average interval between eruptions is ~6 years — approaching long-term mean.
Iceland's most active volcano, beneath Vatnajökull. Erupts every few years to decades (last 2011, large) and causes glacial outburst floods on Skeiðarársandur. (overview — more at vedur.is) · circle on the map = rough outline of the system (radius).
Subglacial system: a subglacial eruption can cause a jökulhlaup (sudden glacial meltwater flood) with little warning, and volcanic gases (incl. SO₂, CO₂) can be dangerous near vents and may pool in hollows. These are standing features of the system, not a sign of an imminent eruption.
📜 Did you know?
The Lakagígar eruption of 1783-84 (Grímsvötn system) is the largest lava eruption in historical time on Earth — 14 km³. The ensuing Móðuharðindi famine killed about 25% of Icelanders and 60% of livestock, and a sulfurous haze spread across Europe (Benjamin Franklin wrote about it from Paris). Grímsvötn itself is Iceland's most active volcano — last large eruption in 2011.
Historical eruptions in the system — points colored by size, blue circle shows where we are now in time.
❓ What if Grímsvötn erupts tomorrow?
Timeline: Met Office usually gets seismic precursors hours to days in advance. Jökulhlaup: Skeiðará/Gígjukvísl onto Skeiðarársand — peak flow can reach 10,000-50,000 m³/s. Ring Road and Skeiðará bridge are at risk (current bridge has survived prior floods). Ash: Size-dependent. Small eruption (like 2004): limited impact. Large eruption (like 2011): high-altitude ash cloud, can halt Nordic flights. Last major: 2011 produced a 12 km² ash plume per hour and stopped Nordic flights for 5 days. Sources: Met Office hazard assessment, GVP Smithsonian.
This is not a forecast. Based on historical experience and official hazard assessments from the Met Office / Civil Protection.
Jökulhlaup history(historical renewal model + Bayesian update)
Last known flood (Grímsvötn): 2024-10-01, 663 d ago. Median interval between floods: ~2.9 yr (1054 d, n=7) · historically ~1 in 50 within 6 mo from a state like this (n=7).
Note: The Met Office does not publish open realtime water-level/conductivity data. Realtime flood monitoring requires VPN/agreement with Veðurstofa (vmkerfi.vedur.is).
GFUM step detection — 5 drops ≥ 15 mm in past 2 yr (May-Oct; winter snow filtered). Each drop = ice-shell subsidence, possible jökulhlaup signal. Latest: 2026-05-02 (-21 mm).
Points = earthquake locations in the selected window, coloured by magnitude: ● M3+ · ● M2+ · ● smaller (a sample if more than 800).
Earthquakes
5
Largest
M1.0
M3,0+
0
Depth range
1–6 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 5 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M1.3 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
21
Largest
M1.3
M3,0+
0
Depth range
1–14 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 21 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M1.8 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
33
Largest
M2.5
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–14 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 33 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M2.5 · countmoment
No significant hypocenter migration — activity is stationary (R²=0.16, n=33); no sign of a propagating dike. Migration shows automatically if R²≥0.30.
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
87
Largest
M2.5
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–25 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 87 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M2.8 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
486
Largest
M3.2
M3,0+
1
Depth range
0–25 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 486 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M3.3 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Note: before February 2026 about half of events lacked an automatic magnitude, so magnitude-dependent figures (b-value, count of M≥X) under-count earlier periods — the catalogue is not homogeneous across this window. Cumulative moment is barely affected.
Earthquakes
933
Largest
M3.2
M3,0+
1
Depth range
0–25 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 933 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M3.4 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Note: before February 2026 about half of events lacked an automatic magnitude, so magnitude-dependent figures (b-value, count of M≥X) under-count earlier periods — the catalogue is not homogeneous across this window. Cumulative moment is barely affected.
Depth is automatic and uncertain; earthquakes alone do not show magma movement — deformation (GPS) and gas are needed. Grey points: automatic fixed-depth values. b-value computed for M≥1.5 (automatic magnitudes make lower completeness unreliable). Preliminary data.
Up = land rising (possible magma accumulation), down = subsidence. From Nevada Geodetic Lab (third-party processing, ~3-week lag, latest 2026-05-02). Interpreted deformation: Icelandic Met Office.
🌊 Volcanic tremor — The baseline tremor is currently low and should only be compared to recent days since win…
IMO tremor plot (station grf). Most of the signal is weather and surf — not eruption confirmation. All stations: vedur.is ↗.
The baseline tremor is currently low and should only be compared to recent days since wind and waves do not affect the readings at this station. (AI)
Band analysis past 9 days (from digitized RSAM values). High 2-4 Hz + low 0.5-1 Hz = possible magma-movement signal; high 0.5-1 Hz without 2-4 Hz = weather/surf.
Earthquakes in the system
Time (UTC)
Mag
Depth (km)
Area
2026-07-26 16:05
M0.8
5.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-26 07:40
M0.7
5.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-26 00:20
M1.0
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 20:24
M1.0
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 19:50
M0.5
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 15:16
M0.7
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 12:40
M0.0
5.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 02:32
M0.5
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 02:32
M0.8
5.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 02:30
M1.2
6.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 01:52
M1.3
14.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 01:27
M0.7
5.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 01:09
M0.6
10.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 00:37
M1.1
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 00:29
M1.3
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 00:14
M0.7
14.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 00:05
M0.5
9.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-25 00:01
M0.8
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 22:18
M0.4
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 22:03
M0.8
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 21:43
M0.9
11.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 17:04
M0.9
8.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 17:04
M1.2
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 16:54
M0.7
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 14:10
M1.0
0.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 12:27
M1.3
4.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-24 06:16
M0.3
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-21 08:54
M1.1
3.8
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-20 22:45
M1.1
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-20 15:39
M0.9
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-20 12:16
M2.5
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-20 08:55
M0.4
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-20 05:01
M0.6
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-19 16:07
M0.6
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-18 13:06
M0.4
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-18 07:18
M0.3
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-18 06:27
M0.6
8.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-18 05:30
M-0.1
18.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-18 01:48
M0.6
9.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-17 23:19
M0.4
17.8
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-17 19:19
M-0.4
25.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-17 14:27
M-0.1
0.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 22:19
M0.7
3.8
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 20:53
M2.3
5.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 20:15
M1.0
2.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 10:11
M-0.5
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 09:59
M0.5
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 08:20
M0.7
10.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 05:15
M0.4
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 01:21
M0.7
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-16 01:12
M0.1
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-14 00:44
M0.5
3.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-13 07:34
M0.8
3.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-12 19:19
M1.2
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-12 13:44
M0.6
7.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-11 14:39
M0.6
9.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-11 14:39
M0.3
7.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-11 14:39
M0.3
7.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-11 14:38
M0.7
3.7
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-07-11 13:14
M1.1
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
For the advanced — expert charts — Coulomb, migration, InSAR
🔬 Coulomb stress transfer — advanced analysis
1 earthquakes M≥3.0 in this window on this system. Such events transfer stress to neighbouring faults — some become more likely to slip, others less ("Coulomb stress transfer"). The Met Office does not publish focal mechanisms for automatically located events, so Skjálfti does not compute this itself — it requires strike/dip/rake data which is only available for M≥4.5 events in the GCMT catalogue.
For Coulomb analysis, see: USGS Coulomb 3.4 (stand-alone software) and focal mechanisms for Iceland in Global CMT.
System journal
Automatic snapshots and media coverage, in chronological order. Subscribe: RSS · ntfy skjalftar-grimsvotn
2026-07-24 04:10:04 UTC
In the last 24 hours, no seismic activity was measured in the Grímsvötn system, Iceland's most active volcano, and activity is decreasing compared to the weekly average but remains within normal levels for this area. The increase over the past week has been characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms, and land uplift at the station is currently faster than the decadal average although GNSS data are several weeks old. Activity most closely resembles the period around January 26, 2025, and results are automatic preliminary results; further charts on trends and land uplift can be found below on the page.
2026-07-21 22:50:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, seismic activity in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath Vatnajökull glacier, has been decreasing and is currently below the weekly rate with only 1 earthquake. This scattered background activity is within what is considered normal for this area, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude M2.5 and a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 2.5. Land uplift is still measured at approximately 75 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year. The activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026, but it should be noted that these are automatic preliminary results where depth is unreliable.
2026-07-21 15:40:06 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 2 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath Vatnajökull glacier, with seismic activity remaining within what is normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude M2.5 and a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 2.5. Land uplift is currently measured at approximately 75 mm per year according to GNSS data from a few weeks ago, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year. This activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026, although it should be noted that these results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable.
2026-07-21 12:20:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 3 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath Vatnajökull glacier, with seismic activity remaining within what is normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.5 and the cumulative moment magnitude for the same period being Mw 2.5. GNSS measurements show land rising at approximately 75 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, though these results are automatic preliminary findings and earthquake depths are unreliable. This activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026 as a historical analogue, and further data and monitoring charts can be found lower on this page.
2026-07-21 08:55:03 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 5 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, with seismic activity remaining within what is normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude M2.5 and a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 2.5. GNSS measurements show land rising at approximately 75 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, and this activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026. Please note that these results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths, and further data and maps can be found lower on this page.
2026-07-21 05:05:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 4 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, with seismic activity remaining within what is normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.5 (Mw) and the cumulative moment magnitude for the same period also at 2.5. GNSS measurements indicate land uplift of approximately 75 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, though these results are automatic preliminary data with unreliable depth estimates. This activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026, as a historical analogue, and further data and maps of the area can be found below.
Repeated × 2 since 2026-07-20 15:40:05 — last 2026-07-20 23:00:04
Over the last 24 hours, 5 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located under the Vatnajökull glacier, indicating slightly more activity than usual for this area where the average is 1.2 earthquakes per day. The earthquake activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.5 (M2.5) and the cumulative moment magnitude for the same period being Mw 2.5. Land uplift is currently measured at approximately 76 mm per year according to GNSS data that is a few weeks old, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year. This activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026, but it should be noted that all results are automatic preliminary findings where depth is unreliable.
2026-07-20 12:25:03 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 4 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath Vatnajökull, with the seismic activity remaining within what is normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and consists of scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring M2.5 and a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 2.5. Geodetic measurements show land rising at approximately 76 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, though these results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths. This activity most closely resembles the period around January 24, 2026, as a historical analogue, and further data and maps can be found lower on the page.
2026-07-19 19:45:03 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, seismic activity in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath Vatnajökull glacier, has been within normal limits for this area, with activity currently decreasing with only 1 recorded earthquake. The seismicity is characterized by scattered background activity rather than short-lived swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 0.6 and the cumulative seismic moment magnitude for the same period being 1.0. Concurrently, several-week-old GNSS data show land uplift of approximately 77 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year. This activity most closely resembles the period around August 13, 2024, but it should be noted that these are automatic preliminary results where depth measurements are unreliable. Maps and further measurements on the volcano's development can be found lower on this page.
2026-07-18 19:20:06 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 6 earthquakes were detected under Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, indicating that activity is increasing and is somewhat higher than usual for this area. This increase is characterized by scattered background activity rather than short-lived swarms, and the activity most closely resembles the period around August 13, 2024, when 20 earthquakes were recorded. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 2.3 (with a cumulative moment magnitude of Mw 2.3), and GNSS data show the land rising at approximately 77 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. Please note that the earthquake results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths, and the deformation data are a few weeks old. Further charts and deformation maps are available below.
2026-07-18 14:30:02 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 7 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, indicating that activity is increasing and is somewhat higher than usual for this area. The seismic activity over the last seven days is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, and the current state most closely resembles the period around August 13, 2024, when 20 earthquakes were recorded. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 2.3 (M2.3) and the cumulative seismic moment for the same period was 2.3 (Mw), while GNSS measurements also show the ground rising at approximately 77 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. These results are automatic preliminary findings where earthquake depths are unreliable, and further maps and data can be found below on this page.
2026-07-18 11:45:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 7 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, and the activity is increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly average of 4 earthquakes per day. This seismic activity is, however, within what is normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.3 (Mw) and the cumulative moment magnitude for the same period being Mw 2.3. GNSS measurements show land uplift of approximately 77 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, though these results are automatic preliminary findings and earthquake depths are unreliable. The current activity resembles the period around August 13, 2024 as a historical analogue, and further data and maps can be found below on this page.
2026-07-18 05:35:02 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 4 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, with seismic activity remaining within what is considered normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.3 (Mw) and the cumulative moment magnitude for the same period also being 2.3. GNSS measurements show land uplift of approximately 77 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year, with the current activity most closely resembling the period around August 12, 2024. All results are automatic preliminary findings where earthquake depth is unreliable, and further measurements and maps can be found lower on this page.
2026-07-17 22:20:06 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 2 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, with seismic activity remaining within what is normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude M2.3 and the cumulative seismic moment for the same period being Mw 2.3. GNSS measurements show land uplift of approximately 79 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, and the current activity most closely resembles the period around August 13, 2024. All results regarding earthquakes and depth are automatic preliminary findings, and further data and maps can be found lower on this page.
2026-07-17 19:25:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 5 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, with seismic activity increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly average rate. This activity is, however, within what is considered normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, most closely resembling the period around August 13, 2024. The largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude (Mw) 2.3, and GNSS data show land uplift of approximately 79 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. Please note that the earthquake results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths, and the GNSS data are a few weeks old.
2026-07-17 16:10:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 4 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, with seismic activity remaining within what is considered normal for this area. The activity is similar to the past week and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.3 (Mw) and the cumulative seismic moment for the same period also at 2.3. Geodetic measurements show ongoing land uplift of approximately 79 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, though it should be noted that these results are automatic preliminary data with unreliable depths. The current activity most closely resembles the period around August 13, 2024, and further data and maps can be found below.
2026-07-17 12:20:05 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 3 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, with activity remaining similar to the past week and within the normal range for this area. This represents scattered background activity, with 80% of events over the last seven days being independent, while the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours was magnitude 2.3 (Mw), with the cumulative moment magnitude for the period also at 2.3. Geodetic measurements show land uplift of approximately 79 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average, and the current activity most closely resembles the period around August 12, 2024. Please note that the earthquake results are automatic preliminary findings with unreliable depths, and the GNSS data is several weeks old.
2026-07-17 08:25:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, 5 earthquakes were detected in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath Vatnajökull glacier, indicating that seismic activity is increasing as the last 24 hours are well above the weekly average rate. This increase is, however, within what is normal for this area and is characterized by scattered background activity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the last 48 hours measuring magnitude 2.3 (Mw) and the cumulative moment magnitude for the same period also being 2.3. Concurrently, several-weeks-old GNSS data show the land rising at approximately 79 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year. The current activity most closely resembles the period around August 12, 2024 as a historical analogue, though it must be noted that these are automatic preliminary results where depth is unreliable. Maps and further measurements on the volcano's development can be found further down the page.
2026-07-17 05:20:04 UTC
Over the last 24 hours, seismic activity has been increasing in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano located beneath the Vatnajökull glacier, and is currently measured somewhat higher than usual for this area. A total of 6 earthquakes were detected during the last 24 hours, which is well above the weekly average, with the largest earthquake measuring magnitude 2.3 (M2.3) and a cumulative moment magnitude of 2.3 (Mw) over the last two days. This represents scattered background activity rather than earthquake swarms and most closely resembles the period around August 12, 2024, while GNSS data show land uplift of approximately 79 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average. Please note that these are automatic preliminary results where depth is unreliable, but further data and maps can be found lower on the page.
What do the numbers mean — and what should I do?
β (swarm signal): how high activity is versus the area's 2-year average. β above 2 means an ongoing swarm. It measures activity, not a forecast of a large quake.
Cumulative moment (Mw): the combined energy of the quakes in the period. Uplift (GNSS): whether the ground is rising or sinking, mm per year — the data are a few weeks old. Some systems (e.g. Svartsengi) deform in steps during eruption cycles rather than at a steady annual rate.
Swarm character is computed for a whole volcanic belt, not a single system — it describes the belt, not necessarily this one system.
What should I do? This is automatic monitoring for information — not an official warning. Follow official information from the Icelandic Met Office and Civil Protection (112).