Seismicity by period · derived statistics from Skjálftalísa (Icelandic Met Office)
Status (automatic)
In the last 24 hours, eight earthquakes were recorded in the Grímsvötn system, indicating higher than usual activity for this area and an increase from previous days. The activity is characterized by distributed background seismicity rather than swarms and most closely resembles the period around April 29, 2025, though these are automatic preliminary results. Uplift is currently faster than the decadal average, but GNSS data are several weeks old, making short-term interpretations uncertain. Further details on trends and uplift are available below.
VONA (Grímsvötn): Green (was: Yellow, 2025-01-20) · source
VONA = Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation; the official Met Office colour code for aviation. Independent of Skjálfti's automatic analysis.
Depth — 3D and cross-section Grímsvötn · last 90 days
Each dot is an earthquake, depth as the third dimension — Grímsvötn, last 90 days. Drag the 3D view to rotate; point at a dot for details.
3D (rotatable) · depth ×2.5
Cross-section — distance along profile (km) vs depth (km)
⚠ Preliminary depths, unreliable (automatic Met Office solutions; depth often poorly constrained). events with unconstrained (default) depth shown as open rings — not real structure. For illustration, not analysis.
🕰️ Last eruption / event — 15 years ago
Largest eruption in 100 years(2011-05-21). Sent an ash cloud that halted Nordic flights for days. Average interval between eruptions is ~6 years — approaching long-term mean.
Iceland's most active volcano, beneath Vatnajökull. Erupts every few years to decades (last 2011, large) and causes glacial outburst floods on Skeiðarársandur. (overview — more at vedur.is) · circle on the map = rough outline of the system (radius).
Subglacial system: a subglacial eruption can cause a jökulhlaup (sudden glacial meltwater flood) with little warning, and volcanic gases (incl. SO₂, CO₂) can be dangerous near vents and may pool in hollows. These are standing features of the system, not a sign of an imminent eruption.
📜 Did you know?
The Lakagígar eruption of 1783-84 (Grímsvötn system) is the largest lava eruption in historical time on Earth — 14 km³. The ensuing Móðuharðindi famine killed about 25% of Icelanders and 60% of livestock, and a sulfurous haze spread across Europe (Benjamin Franklin wrote about it from Paris). Grímsvötn itself is Iceland's most active volcano — last large eruption in 2011.
Historical eruptions in the system — points colored by size, blue circle shows where we are now in time.
❓ What if Grímsvötn erupts tomorrow?
Timeline: Met Office usually gets seismic precursors hours to days in advance. Jökulhlaup: Skeiðará/Gígjukvísl onto Skeiðarársand — peak flow can reach 10,000-50,000 m³/s. Ring Road and Skeiðará bridge are at risk (current bridge has survived prior floods). Ash: Size-dependent. Small eruption (like 2004): limited impact. Large eruption (like 2011): high-altitude ash cloud, can halt Nordic flights. Last major: 2011 produced a 12 km² ash plume per hour and stopped Nordic flights for 5 days. Sources: Met Office hazard assessment, GVP Smithsonian.
This is not a forecast. Based on historical experience and official hazard assessments from the Met Office / Civil Protection.
Jökulhlaup history(historical renewal model + Bayesian update)
Last known flood (Grímsvötn): 2024-10-01, 617 d ago. Median interval between floods: ~2.9 yr (1054 d, n=7) · historically ~1 in 6 within 6 mo from a state like this (n=7).
Active signals now:
Skjálfta-aukning (×2.0) — 2.4/d vs 1.1/d (sl. 14d)
Active signals raise the rough baseline — from ~1 in 6 toward ~1 in 3 over the next 6 mo. The multiplier (×2.0) is a rough estimate, not a measured probability.
Likelihood ratios are illustrative — not from peer-reviewed Iceland-specific research. Indicator, not forecast.
Note: The Met Office does not publish open realtime water-level/conductivity data. Realtime flood monitoring requires VPN/agreement with Veðurstofa (vmkerfi.vedur.is).
GFUM step detection — 5 drops ≥ 15 mm in past 2 yr (May-Oct; winter snow filtered). Each drop = ice-shell subsidence, possible jökulhlaup signal. Latest: 2026-05-02 (-21 mm).
Points = earthquake locations in the selected window, coloured by magnitude: ● M3+ · ● M2+ · ● smaller (a sample if more than 800).
Earthquakes
8
Largest
M1.0
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–10 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 8 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M1.4 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
8
Largest
M1.0
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–10 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 8 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M1.4 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
19
Largest
M2.0
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–11 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 19 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M2.2 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
57
Largest
M2.0
M3,0+
0
Depth range
0–22 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 57 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M2.3 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Earthquakes
412
Largest
M3.2
M3,0+
1
Depth range
0–23 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 412 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M3.3 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top) — shallowing in the data (5.2→4.0 km). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Note: before February 2026 about half of events lacked an automatic magnitude, so magnitude-dependent figures (b-value, count of M≥X) under-count earlier periods — the catalogue is not homogeneous across this window. Cumulative moment is barely affected.
Earthquakes
854
Largest
M3.2
M3,0+
1
Depth range
0–23 km
Earthquakes over time
Cumulative count · 854 earthquakes · total moment ≈ M3.3 · countmoment
Depth (0 km at top). Grey: fixed depth.
Magnitude distribution
Depth cross-sections — color by age (orange=newest, grey=older), point size by M. Rising cluster = possible magma intrusion.
Note: before February 2026 about half of events lacked an automatic magnitude, so magnitude-dependent figures (b-value, count of M≥X) under-count earlier periods — the catalogue is not homogeneous across this window. Cumulative moment is barely affected.
Depth is automatic and uncertain; earthquakes alone do not show magma movement — deformation (GPS) and gas are needed. Grey points: automatic fixed-depth values. b-value computed for M≥1.5 (automatic magnitudes make lower completeness unreliable). Preliminary data.
Up = land rising (possible magma accumulation), down = subsidence. From Nevada Geodetic Lab (third-party processing, ~3-week lag, latest 2026-05-02). Interpreted deformation: Icelandic Met Office.
🌊 Volcanic tremor — The baseline tremor is currently low and should only be compared to recent days since win…
IMO tremor plot (station grf). Most of the signal is weather and surf — not eruption confirmation. All stations: vedur.is.
The baseline tremor is currently low and should only be compared to recent days since wind and waves do not affect the readings at this station. (AI)
Band analysis past 9 days (from digitized RSAM values). High 2-4 Hz + low 0.5-1 Hz = possible magma-movement signal; high 0.5-1 Hz without 2-4 Hz = weather/surf.
Earthquakes in the system
Time (UTC)
Mag
Depth
Area
2026-06-10 03:40
M-0.6
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-10 02:43
M0.8
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-10 02:43
M0.8
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-10 02:43
M1.0
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-10 02:35
M0.7
3.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-10 01:22
M0.8
10.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-09 21:17
M0.7
6.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-09 21:17
M0.6
5.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-07 14:00
M0.1
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-07 06:13
M1.8
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-07 06:13
M2.0
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-06 21:39
M1.0
6.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-05 23:05
M0.8
2.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-05 10:50
M0.4
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-05 04:46
M0.1
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-05 03:21
M0.1
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-05 00:43
M1.3
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-05 00:43
M1.3
4.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-04 03:58
M0.2
11.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-03 04:44
M0.2
3.8
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-03 04:44
M0.1
6.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-02 23:58
M0.2
18.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-06-01 13:45
M1.7
21.9
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-31 03:05
M0.4
0.0
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-31 01:50
M0.4
2.9
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-31 01:50
M0.8
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-30 13:56
M0.1
4.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-30 13:56
M0.4
2.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-30 12:03
M0.3
6.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-29 13:25
M1.2
4.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-29 13:25
M1.5
4.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-29 11:11
M0.6
5.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-29 10:32
M0.3
6.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-28 10:18
M0.0
2.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-27 08:57
M0.3
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-27 08:57
M0.4
0.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-27 04:09
M-0.7
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-26 23:17
M0.6
2.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-26 00:34
M1.1
3.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-25 10:54
M0.8
2.9
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-23 18:32
M0.7
5.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-23 04:15
M0.5
6.7
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-22 23:31
M0.5
0.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-17 14:59
M0.2
0.7
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-17 11:42
M0.9
5.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-17 09:39
M0.3
1.1
Önnur svæði
2026-05-17 08:28
M0.6
4.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-15 10:14
M0.6
1.1
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-15 06:50
M0.0
0.9
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-14 18:22
M0.4
3.3
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-14 12:09
M0.4
3.9
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-13 18:00
M0.7
1.9
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-12 08:51
M0.6
5.4
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-12 04:00
M0.4
1.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-12 03:23
M0.9
6.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-11 22:47
M0.6
0.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-11 20:01
M0.3
0.6
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-08 14:35
M1.0
3.7
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-06 14:10
M0.5
4.2
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
2026-05-06 11:26
M0.4
5.5
Vatnajökull (Bárðarbunga/Grímsvötn)
For the advanced — expert charts — Coulomb, migration, InSAR
🔬 Coulomb stress transfer — advanced analysis
1 earthquakes M≥3.0 in this window on this system. Such events transfer stress to neighbouring faults — some become more likely to slip, others less ("Coulomb stress transfer"). The Met Office does not publish focal mechanisms for automatically located events, so Skjálfti does not compute this itself — it requires strike/dip/rake data which is only available for M≥4.5 events in the GCMT catalogue.
For Coulomb analysis, see: USGS Coulomb 3.4 (stand-alone software) and focal mechanisms for Iceland in Global CMT.
System journal
Automatic snapshots and media coverage, in chronological order. Subscribe: RSS · ntfy skjalftar-grimsvotn
2026-06-10 03:45:03 UTC
In the last 24 hours, seven earthquakes were recorded in the Grímsvötn system, indicating higher than usual activity for this area and an increase from previous days. The activity is characterized by distributed background seismicity rather than swarms and most closely resembles the period around April 29, 2025. Uplift is measured at approximately 72 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average, though GNSS data are several weeks old. These figures are automatic preliminary results, and further details are available below.
2026-06-10 01:25:03 UTC
In the last 24 hours, three earthquakes were recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, with activity similar to the past week. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. Uplift is measured at approximately 72 mm/year, exceeding the decadal average of 53 mm/year, though GNSS data are several weeks old and results are automatic preliminary findings. Activity most closely resembles the period around April 24, 2025, and further details on trends and uplift can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-09 21:20:05 UTC
In the last 24 hours, one earthquake was recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, indicating that activity is decreasing. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. Uplift is measured at approximately 72 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average, though data are several weeks old and results are automatic preliminary findings. Activity most closely resembles the period around April 24, 2025, with further details on maps and trends available lower on the page.
Repeated × 4 since 2026-06-08 14:05:04 — last 2026-06-09 06:15:04
In the last 24 hours, no seismic activity was measured in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcano, and activity is decreasing compared to the weekly average. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. Land uplift is measured at approximately 72 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm/year, though GNSS data are several weeks old. These automatic preliminary results most closely resemble the period around April 24, 2025, and further data can be viewed below.
Repeated × 2 since 2026-06-08 06:15:04 — last 2026-06-08 11:00:06
In the last 24 hours, one earthquake was recorded in the Grímsvötn system, Iceland's most active volcano under Vatnajökull, indicating decreasing activity that remains within normal levels for this area. Recent activity has been characterized by distributed background seismicity rather than swarms and resembles the period around April 24, 2025. GNSS data from recent weeks shows uplift of ~71 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average. These figures are automatic preliminary results, and further details are available below.
2026-06-07 21:40:05 UTC
In the last 24 hours, three earthquakes were recorded at Grímsvötn and activity is similar to the past week, which is considered normal background activity for this area. The largest earthquake was M2.0 with a cumulative magnitude of Mw 2.1 in the last 48 hours, while uplift measures ~71 mm/year, faster than the decadal average although GNSS data are several weeks old. Activity most closely resembles the period around April 25, 2025, but results are automatic preliminary results and depth is unreliable. Further details on maps and trends can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-07 14:05:04 UTC
In the last 24 hours, four earthquakes were recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, and an increase above the weekly average indicates rising activity although it remains within normal levels for this area. The increase is primarily due to distributed background seismicity rather than swarms, with the largest earthquake in the past 48 hours measuring M2.0 and a cumulative magnitude of Mw 2.1 for the period. Uplift in the area is currently about 71 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm/year, though the data are several weeks old and results are automatic preliminary results. Activity most closely resembles the period around April 25, 2025, and further details on trends and uplift can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-07 06:15:06 UTC
In the last 24 hours, two earthquakes were recorded at Grímsvötn and activity is similar to the past week, which is considered normal for this area. Seismicity is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms and most closely resembles the period around April 24, 2025. Uplift is measured at approximately 71 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average, though data are several weeks old and results are automatic preliminary results. Further details on trends and uplift can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-07 00:45:04 UTC
In the last 24 hours, one earthquake was recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, indicating that activity is decreasing. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. GNSS data show uplift of approximately 71 mm/year, which exceeds the decadal average but is uncertain over short timescales. These automatic preliminary results resemble the period around October 19, 2025, and further details are available below.
2026-06-06 21:45:05 UTC
In the last 24 hours, two earthquakes were recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, with activity similar to the past week. This scattered background activity is within normal levels for the area, and land uplift measures approximately 70 mm per year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm per year. The cumulative magnitude of the largest earthquakes in the last 48 hours is Mw 1.6, and current conditions most closely resemble the period around October 20, 2025. Results are automatic preliminary results, and further data can be found below.
2026-06-06 10:55:06 UTC
In the last 24 hours, one earthquake was recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, and trends indicate that activity is decreasing. This scattered background activity is within normal levels for the area and most closely resembles the period around October 22, 2025. Uplift measures approximately 70 mm/year according to GNSS data that are several weeks old and show faster uplift than the decadal average. Results are automatic preliminary results, and further details can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-06 03:25:06 UTC
In the last 24 hours, three earthquakes were recorded in the Grímsvötn system, Iceland's most active volcano under Vatnajökull, with activity similar to the past week. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. GNSS data from recent weeks indicate land uplift of approximately 70 mm per year, which exceeds the decadal average of 53 mm per year. These automatic preliminary results resemble the period around October 22, 2025, and further details are available below.
2026-06-05 23:10:08 UTC
In the last 24 hours, six earthquakes were recorded at Grímsvötn, representing an increase compared to the weekly average but remaining within normal levels for this area. Activity has consisted of distributed background seismicity rather than swarms, and results are automatic preliminary results. Uplift in the area is currently about 69 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm/year, although GNSS data are several weeks old. Further details on trends and uplift can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-05 10:55:06 UTC
In the last 24 hours, five earthquakes were recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, and an increase above the weekly average indicates rising activity although it remains within normal levels for this area. The increase is primarily due to distributed background seismicity rather than short-lived swarms, with the largest event at M1.3 and a cumulative magnitude of Mw 1.5 over the past 48 hours. Uplift at the GFUM GNSS station is currently about 69 mm/year, exceeding the decadal average of 53 mm/year, though the data are several weeks old and results are automatic preliminary estimates. Activity most closely resembles the period around April 6, 2026, and further details on trends and uplift can be found below.
2026-06-05 03:25:07 UTC
In the last 24 hours, four earthquakes were recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, with activity similar to the past week. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. Uplift is measured at approximately 69 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average, though GNSS data are several weeks old and results are automatic preliminary results. Activity most closely resembles the period around April 2, 2026, and further details on trends and uplift can be found lower on the page.
2026-06-05 00:00:22 UTC
In the last 24 hours, one earthquake was recorded in Grímsvötn, Iceland's most active volcanic system under Vatnajökull, indicating that activity is decreasing. Seismicity remains within normal levels for this area and is characterized by distributed background activity rather than swarms. Uplift is measured at approximately 69 mm/year, which is faster than the decadal average of 53 mm/year, though GNSS data are several weeks old. These automatic preliminary results resemble the period around March 2, 2026, and further details are available below.
What do the numbers mean — and what should I do?
β (swarm signal): how high activity is versus the area's 2-year average. β above 2 means an ongoing swarm. It measures activity, not a forecast of a large quake.
Cumulative moment (Mw): the combined energy of the quakes in the period. Uplift (GNSS): whether the ground is rising or sinking, mm per year — the data are a few weeks old. Some systems (e.g. Svartsengi) deform in steps during eruption cycles rather than at a steady annual rate.
Swarm character is computed for a whole volcanic belt, not a single system — it describes the belt, not necessarily this one system.
What should I do? This is automatic monitoring for information — not an official warning. Follow official information from the Icelandic Met Office and Civil Protection (112).
Data: Icelandic Met Office (Skjálftalísa API), automatic preliminary results — may change. This is not an official warning. Official warnings: vedur.is and Civil Protection (112).